Friday, September 22, 2017

More on Seth Rich ...

Seth Rich Memorial Bike Rack In Washington D.C. 
Seth enjoying biking and walking in the city.


A few more thoughts on the Seth Rich hypothesis, as tweeted (and to summarize). The alleged Sy Hersh leaked phone call was confirmed by a reputable journalist as indeed "he," though Hersh said it was recorded without his knowledge and Butowsky made more out of it than Hersh intended.

The best I can make of it - Hersh engaged in his own information fishing expedition with Butowsky? .. the conversation was some sort of out-of-context "swap" he wasn't prepared to go on record with. The presented narrative didn't meet Hersh's standard of proof, or something he was ready to rest his laurels on ..?

That being said, yes, I think it throws questions on the Russia narrative, though not necessarily, either. If Seth Rich took these emails, though, my guess is, he didn't act alone, being a sociable sort of person, not a "lone wolf." Hersh suggests it was for money, with Seth Rich (hypothetically) telling Wikileaks he had back-up "if anything happens to me" - he also seems to view Wikileaks with some suspicion (in this narrative, that is) .. so .. looks like it'd be more like "Frat guys gone astray" "sowing wild oats" - thinking they'd found a way to score some money - Seth, himself, a mid-level DNC'er making about 40k yearly in an expensive city. Then there's this alleged pal of his who presumably had access to passwords. But again, I stress .. we don't know if this is true, either.



Seth Rich (center, seated) with friends. 
I read somewhere this was taken in Nebraska, not Washington D.C. I don't post it to imply anything about his friends in this picture with respect to the emails - rather, it seems to show Seth Rich's sociable nature and a daring leadership streak. Could such a personality trait have gotten him into a "scrap" of sorts with some alleged "pals," i.e. the DNC leaks? Possibly.


Hersh does spin the narrative, regardless, that it was a bungled burglary, as our blogged hypothesis does. And make no mistake - bungled burglary works very well in this tale with the information available to the public. But .. if Seth really did take the emails with some "pals," I'd say (rather) it does open up the possibility that he was "assassinated" - and by any number of parties .. including whoever he would have done it with - and/or their associates. In short, you have a veritable "basket of crabs," as the French say. "Un panier de crabes." As for the Clintons, well, I'd put them WAY down at the bottom of such a list. (I just don't think it's the way they would handle such a problem, if it's even the case.)

But there is a way someone could plan and expedite a murder in our hypothesis as that narrative stands. (Again, our hypothesis could be shot to hell. We could find out something very different about where Seth was and what he was doing. Or .. the police could just solve it.)

Say you take our hypothesis a step further .. if you say, for example, that Seth had *habit* of cutting through the Howard University campus on his way home from his favorite pub .. if Seth had a *habit* of stopping to make some calls from the comfort of the campus - ten minutes from his house - before heading the rest of the way ... makes sense, right? For someone who couldn't easily use his cell phone indoors at home, right? Well, then ... 

1. The hit men could be in a vehicle following Seth (having stalked and researched his habits);

2. When Seth gets to Howard, they park near his hypothetically usual exit out the southeast corner  - and wait for him to emerge. Mind you, they wait a long time in this hypothetical as he's on the phone about two hours with his girlfriend. But .. many a detective has waited that long (at least in t.v. shows). Why not hit men? So .. 


Exiting SE corner of Howard onto 4th St NE,
Google Maps 2016. I'm seeing a report that meters are off around 2-4 AM Sunday. "Hitmen" would presumably be about where those two cars are. The person on foot heading to the viewer's left, i.e. south on 4th would be about where Seth Rich would be walking a little past 4 AM, still talking on the phone, when the "hit men" see him emerge and pull out ahead of him.



3. That is (as per the above photo and caption), when Seth finally exits, they drive over to either Adams or 2nd and park again around there. As shown in the enlarged google map below, they cut through either of two alleys to emerge on the north side of W St near the market - so as to intercept Seth right before the Flagler intersection. Keep in mind: they have a tight time frame because they have to *kill him* before he reaches the intersection - at which point, everyone's on "Candid Camera" (see hypothesis). The people who committed the crime know about the cameras and they know the "terrain."

4. Afterwards, they head back to their vehicle on (or near) either Adams or 2nd.




Now this doesn't fit with what the limited number of studies say about hit men - although the studies do report an overall information deficit. In this hypothetical, you'd have to have two *patient* hit men - able to "lay in wait" for a while. Which, again, doesn't seem totally out of the range of possibilities, although there are questions about why they'd pick this location, apart from habit and predictability. Still, as one reporter said, logistically, it's "a good place" to commit a crime, and other crimes have been committed here before (minimally, two phone robberies and a car jacking - I bet there have been others).

Now .. one might ask, well, if they're that *patient* and calculating, how'd they screw this up when finally intercepting him on W St? 

Well, again, the studies say this ain't "the movies," and hit men exist at all levels of expertise. They screw up too, like people in any other job. And - maybe the hit men - like the bungled burglary robbers (in that narrative) - also get more than they bargain for - with this victim - in this case, Seth Rich.

But .. it *does* look like *ordinary* street crime - a bungled burglary or mugging. Bungled burglary works very well in terms of facts known to the public and the crime scene and statistics for this area. Not to mention that, you have to wonder why "hit men" wouldn't "take him down" somewhere between the bar and Howard (in this hypothesis).

Hersh seems to follow a line of analysis that the robbers might not ever have committed a homicide before .. leading us back to the very beginning of our research .. when we were looking at the phone robbers. (They generally "worked" 11 P.M.-1 A.M. The M.O. being, one standing back a bit while another pointed a silver pistol and said, "Disable your phone and hand it over," or "Give me your codes." Then they'd take the phone, nothing else, as I recall reading, and leave.) 

It's hard to say without more information available to the public (for example, what distance he was shot from, angles, ballistics ..) Someone asked what race the assailants were, and as I posted on twitter, the public doesn't know. If you read our blog hypothesis, the video reportedly only shows the assailants' feet or torsos .. there are two different news reports there .. 

I'd say, if the assailants were white or a little older, it might be a good idea to look more closely at the possibility of a planned hit. Shoes or sneakers or clothing styles might provide some clues. 


Adams to Flagler Alley Entrance;
head straight south and you're at W St.

2nd St Alley; head straight east
and you'll intersect 
with the Adams to Flagler Alley

Heading east down the 2nd St Alley,
approaching the intersection
with the Adams to Flagler Alley



As blogged in our earlier hypothesis, the assailants use one or both of the north alleys (north side of W St) at least once (there's also an alley on the south side of W St which poses a possibility, as discussed). In the seemingly unlikely case of 2 "hit men," they come in from one of the two pictured alleys shown above to intercept Seth Rich via the north side of W street. With hit men, it doesn't seem they'd use the alley on the south side of W St at all, since it wouldn't provide them with as many options for an entrance or getaway. The straight Adams to Flagler Alley seems more concealed from various windows, though it's a pretty odd hour of the night so 2nd St might work anyway. I don't know what parking is like on those streets at that hour. It doesn't look too bad on either, but it's not Saturday night (Sunday morning) in a warm July (75, 82 around midnight. No one was wearing shorts or sandals, I guess ..?) "Hit men," however, wouldn't necessarily have to park that close. Right? 

But again, I'll guess, the assailants were *ordinary* street criminals already hanging out near the market - when Seth Rich walked by (whether they were on the south or north side of W). If they were the phone thieves - maybe they'd been lying low because of the increased police presence in the neighborhood and they weren't expecting a target at that hour - but there he was, chatting on the phone, no less, they'd done this routine before, and they decided to go for it again.

Only this time, it didn't quite go as usual.

Editor's Note. This is number 2 of 4 in a Seth Rich blog series. Post 1, "Seth Rich Hypothesis," is here; post three, "Bungled Burglary or Bungled 'Hit'" is here; post four, "Wonderland" is here. (Really, you have to take the time to read the whole lengthy thing - and in sequence - for any of it to make sense, even if you fancy yourself an expert. You might even want to look at some of the posts a second time, too.)

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