Sunday, April 1, 2012

Hypothesis

The Chicago Tribune reports new evidence in the Trayvon Martin case.  As some already know, a 911 caller phoned police in time for a recording of screaming.  (Audio available at the news link - of both the screams and Zimmerman's voice on the phone.)  Some of the debate has centered around whose voice was heard - Trayvon's or Zimmerman's.

Well, a leading voice expert in the field of forensic voice identification has now determined that it was NOT Zimmerman's voice.  (He can't compare it to Trayvon's voice because he has no recording of Trayvon.  But obviously, if there are only two people in question, and it's not one, it's the other.)

Also, Amy Goodman and Juan Gonzalez have an interview here with the attorney for the Trayvon Martin family.  She states that a key witness is the girl Trayvon was speaking with on the cell phone, and while Zimmerman was following him, and Trayvon was trying to get away from him.  At some point, suddenly in their conversation, she hears Trayvon say, "Why are you following me?" Then she hears scuffling - and the line goes dead, according to phone records, one minute before the police reportedly show up.

I know a lot of people are talking about the case online, and this blogger certainly doesn't have all the reported facts.  But here is my layperson's hypothesis, for what it's worth, and taking into account the witness who recently came forward - and saw Zimmerman kill Trayvon from his window.

I am guessing that Zimmerman came up behind Trayvon suddenly - and from there - everything happened very fast.  Basically, he jumped Trayvon while he was talking on the phone - not a threatening activity - and certainly not threatening to ask someone why they're following you as you look up from a cell phone conversation.  And at that point - up close - with Trayvon 6 feet tall - he had heard Trayvon's voice - not fully deepened - he had seen his face - and he knew he was a tall and gangly kid, unable to effectively do much with what nature was providing him so rapidly.  In short, he jumped him, in part, because he knew he was young and weaker.  He quickly and accurately calculateed in his deranged, racist mind that he *could take him* - as the expression goes.  Trayvon struggles to some extent, and screams for help, but he's just a kid and he's no match for this grown man and very husky and strong looking one, at that.

Zimmerman may - or may not - have injured himself in the scuffle - but if he is, it's nothing significant.  Certainly he doesn't appear injured by the witness' window account - and he sees his face clearly because he walks towards his window and into the light - for example, he sees that Zimmerman is Hispanic - and he doesn't touch his nose - allegedly broken - he looks very worried and he does something many people do when they're worried - he touches his forehead.  Not his nose which should be in excruciating pain.  Not the back of his head bashed on a sidewalk - and he is not stumbling around as if he has a semi or full concussion - which I would think you would have if your head was repeatedly bashed into the sidewalk.  Besides, there's isn't enough time for this to happen.  And the witness doesn't see this at all.  He hears loud voices as if something is wrong - perhaps he hears the confrontation during the cell phone conversation? - then sees them on the lawn.  Plus, the funeral home reports that the youth's knuckles didn't show any signs of punching when they prepared his body for burial.

Another tragic point in this sequence is that - under Florida's law at this point - Trayvon is the one protected by the "stand your ground" laws.  Whether he did or didn't have a gun, he is the one who would have had a right to kill Zimmerman in self-defense.  Yet all these stand-your-ground proponents do not defend Trayvon's right to deliberately and even just injure Zimmerman, if he was injured at all, and by the youth.  In fact, the police chief taken off the case previously defended Zimmerman's imagined right to go after Trayvon, and later, turned around, criticized Trayvon's right to stand his ground with Zimmerman, if that was even what Trayvon did.

And it does not appear to be the case.  Scuffling is established since the friend hears it before the line disconnects - but that seems to be Trayvon being jumped - and the man at the window hears loud voices as if something isn't right - then walks to the window, opens it, and sees what appears to be two men tangling on the lawn - though when Zimmerman gets up - he sees that it is a boy lying face down, dead, in the grass. 

Again - I haven't read everything about the case - but it sounds to this blogger like Zimmerman has Trayvon completely pinned face-first on the lawn, pulls out his gun (or it was already out) - and reaches under Trayvon's body, in order to shoot him at point blank range through the heart while he has him restrained and knows that the police are on the way.  From the internet photograph everywhere, clearly he's a husky and very physically strong man.  That's not manslaughter;  that's murder.

It is my understanding that a gun fired at point blank range is a key piece of evidence for forensics experts.  So the fact that police sent Zimmerman on his way with a murder weapon -- or even minimally  -- a potential murder weapon -- is just incredible -- that his gun wasn't confiscated.  Obviously, the police would know this.  On top of that, they don't even get the phone records - the attorney for the Trayvon Martin family has to pay for an investigator to obtain the records.

Where was the body reported to be found?  Was it found on the lawn where the witness saw it from the window?  Or somewhere else?

I don't see that information on a google.

I don't want to get too esoteric here -in what should obviously be an empirically based investigation - but the window witness, from his phone interview, sounds like what some fourth way psychologists call "an intellectually centered person" in a system dividing observers into 3 basic categories - "intellectual," "emotional," and "physical" (or motor oriented). 

To make this clearer, picture yourself driving in a car - which is a motor activity - like typing - but with other faculties coming into play.  You may have a predominating tendency to handle stress from 1 of the 3 categories mentioned.  A child suddenly steps in front of your vehicle.  A motor oriented reaction immediately brakes.  An emotionally oriented individual immediately feels - before reaching the brake - "OMG there's a child stepping in front of my car!".  In an intellectually geared individual (which may or may not have anything to do with formal education) thinks first -- for example -- "Oh wow, there's a child stepping in front of my car."  Before the physical response of stepping on the brakes kicks in or an emotional one.

One isn't better than another - though in this car example - a motor oriented person may react faster, with seconds making a difference.  The point to this blogger, is that the witness' description of events in terms of his own reactions is what made his story quite credible.  If someone is lying, they don't generally have this level of self-reflected description in their story.  At the very least, it seems to me, the witness is describing what he saw or believes he saw.  He is an intellectually centered observer.  That doesn't make him more credible.  It's his description of himself under stress that does.

In other words - he sees Zimmerman get up.  He sees the boy now, not another man.  He looks at Zimmerman and THINKS to himself:  "I just watched him kill him."  It's a very shocking experience, I would imagine, to see someone murdered from your apartment window.  Then Zimmerman actually turns and starts walking in the direction of his window - very frightening - but his face becomes visible in the light.

Not only did this gentleman see him kill Trayvon.  He sees him kill him in a way that goes well beyond manslaughter, in my book.

And taking what I say, of course, with a grain of salt.  This is something for a jury to decide with all the relevant facts - which I do not have.  But a lot can happen in a minute.  A lot can pass through a person's mind in a minute - and sound like it's taking more time to the listeners simply because they're describing everything to you.  It might take them 1/2 hour to tell the story, and with the entire range of their experience - but literally, 60 seconds or 2 minutes or whatever had passed.  The window witness tells a story to Anderson Cooper that happened much more rapidly than the time it took for him to relate the story on television.  Which is of course why observed events are also distorted by witnesses, as well.

As far as this blogger is concerned, in the meantime, Zimmerman should be charged and arrested.  He should have been charged and arrested a long time ago.  What is taking the new D.A. so long?  The new voice analysis is out, also showing he lied, he's is still at large, and the investigators still haven't confiscated his gun - although by this time, any evidence pertaining to how the gun was used would be destroyed.  Which the police would know when they sent him off with his gun, wouldn't they?  I would also guess - they still haven't temporarily removed from duty - these initial police officers at the scene, even though it is clear that they have violated a lot of principles of sound, commonsensical police work - and this should be looked into.

And what else I would like to know - is what else the window witness saw.  We hear everything up until Zimmerman walks towards his window into the light.  What did he observe after that?  Did he watch the police arrive?  What happened next?

To some extent, we know what happened because the new video shows Zimmerman in custody within minutes of Trayvon's death.  What did this individual see?

3 comments:

  1. Hypothesis Testing
    Define Hypothesis, what is Hypothesis? Define Hypothesis Testing, null Hypothesis,
    http://www.infoaw.com/article.php?articleId=952

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  2. Here is a dictionary.com definition of hypothesis that matches my usage -

    1.
    a proposition, or set of propositions, set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena, either asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide investigation (working hypothesis) or accepted as highly probable in the light of established facts.

    2.
    a proposition assumed as a premise in an argument.

    3.
    the antecedent of a conditional proposition.

    4.
    a mere assumption or guess.

    http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hypothesis

    It is testable to the extent that we can reason, on the basis of known facts, what is or is not possible; we can also falsify asserted facts - as in the case of Zimmerman claiming that he was screaming on the 911 call - when voice analysts have ruled that possibility out to a 98-99 percent certainty, according to a recent interview on television with a mainstream media host. So clearly, in that case, for example, we now have three facts: (1) It was not Zimmerman screaming, and (2) ergo, it was Trayvon screaming, and (2) ergo, Zimmerman lied to the police.

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