Wonderland

Following the last post on Seth Rich, the 3rd of 3 blog posts (this being the 4th)*, a question arose - how predictable could it be (for a hypothetical set of "hit men") - with Seth cutting through the Howard University campus - if he often returned from his girlfriend's house, and instead of Lou's City Bar (pictured, viewer's left).

His housemate, as blogged earlier, didn't know his girlfriend was out of town that weekend; indeed, he told a reporter that he thought Seth was walking home from her place as he usually did. Seth's plans seemed somewhat impromptu that weekend when he left the bar; in addition to his girlfriend being out-of-town, he was initially heading to Wonderland Ballroom (another D.C. bar and restaurant), according to his bartender buddy - but then, according to a friend he spoke with on the phone, he changed his mind and decided not to go to Wonderland.

As per the blogged hypothetical, Seth makes some phone calls, one of which is the friend who later reports this change-of-plans - then 35 minutes without calls elapse, during which we suggested he was walking to Howard University (which takes about that amount of time) where he then calls his girlfriend and spends the bulk of the conversation there on the campus.

Around 4ish A.M., he heads out of the campus for the last 10 minutes or so it takes to get home, still talking on the phone.

How does this fit in - with the unlikely (but possible) hypothetical scenario of a "bungled hit?"

Well, it was recently reported (or posted by someone somewhere) that Seth's girlfriend lived near Wonderland Ballroom (at least, at that time). Wonderland Ballroom is only an 8 minute walk from Lou's City Bar - in the same neighborhood - so the mapped (and hypothetical) pedestrian route back to Seth's home (as discussed earlier) would be about the same as the hypothetical pedestrian route from Lou's City Bar. Ergo, Seth would have cut through Howard University (as in the original hypothetical) whether he was returning from his favorite pub or returning from his girlfriend's house.

As seen in the map above, Wonderland is only about an 8 minute walk east of Lou's, and Seth Rich is, in the earlier pedestrian-route hypothetical, heading out east - in order to head home - and by cutting through the Howard University campus.

Above, Wonderland Ballroom (the reported vicinity of Seth's girlfriend's house/building/etc) to Howard University. Hypothetically, Seth is walking through quiet residential streets and coming out on a more southern end of Georgia (blogged earlier*) in order to head into the university campus. This is about the same as his route from Lou's City Bar to Howard, as shown in the first Seth Rich blog post* and again, below:

Hypothetical First Leg Of Seth's Walk Home - Lou's City Bar to Howard University. Seth settles down on the campus for the bulk of his phone call before heading out the pedestrian southeast corner onto 4th St NE (blogged earlier*).

Going back to the extended hypothesis (if you've read the previous 3 posts in full*) - whereby Seth habitually cuts through Howard and also stops there to make phone calls - and before heading the last 10 minutes to his own house - it means this route would be EVEN MORE predictable for a couple of hypothetical "hit men" - as Seth used this route, whether he was coming from the bar or his girlfriend's.

If "hit men" followed Seth enough to figure out this (still, hypothetical) lifestyle habit - they'd easily have seen that he stopped to make phone calls at Howard, and probably that the amount of time on the phone varied with each stop, but invariably, he'd head out the same SE end of Howard onto 4th St NE - which (according to Google maps) is a restricted pedestrian route through a university gate without cars. Making it even easier to see who's coming or going - though at that hour of night, few people would be, regardless.

Here's Seth's hypothetical pedestrian exit off the Howard campus. As you can see via Google maps, it's gated and restricted to pedestrians. So he would be exiting through the doorway and, as blogged and shown earlier*, the hypothetical (and unlikely) "hit men" would be parked nearby, waiting:

And "there they are," (as blogged and shown earlier*) perhaps where those two cars are parked, just south of the pedestrian doorway on the west side of 4th St NE as Seth exits. So, Seth walking and still talking on the phone, about where that person is walking in the google maps photo, the hypothetical "hit men" pull out in their vehicle ahead of Seth Rich to intercept him near Flagler Market, and via either of the alleys, also as described earlier, but Adams seeming more likely.*

So, again*, all the "hit men" have to do (in this hypothetical)  - once Seth enters the Howard campus from one end - is drive to that other end of Howard - and park and wait for Seth Rich to walk out the gate down 4th.

The point being, that the new information about Seth's girlfriend living near Wonderland Ballroom (pictured, viewer's left) makes this (still very unlikely) 'hit man" scenario even more *workable* - IF the original hypothetical is correct (and, of course, it might not be).

Then we go back to .. you have a "great place" to commit a planned crime - i.e. near Flagler Market - but also a place where *random* crimes typically occur.

*This is number four of four in a Seth Rich blog series. Number one is here at "Seth Rich Hypothesis," number two is here at "More On Seth Rich," number three is here at "Bungled Robbery vs Bungled 'Hit.'" (Really, you have to take the time to read the whole lengthy thing - and in sequence - for any of it to make sense, even if you fancy yourself an expert. You might even want to look at some of the posts a second time, too.)

Bungled Robbery Vs Bungled "Hit"

A few more thoughts on Seth Rich hypotheses .. namely regarding various assault scenarios blogged in the first "Seth Rich Hypothesis" post, and the (unlikely) possibility of hit-men (in terms of the given hypothesis taken a step or two further, i.e. for the sake of argument in the second post, "More On Seth Rich") ..

You could have a hit planned to look like a bungled robbery; in other words, the struggle is not altogether a case of their hit "going wrong," but a hit in which they deliberately and initially assault the victim - to compel him to fight back .. so that it looks like a bungled robbery. A problem here - perhaps why they don't take anything at all to complete the fabricated picture. Unless something did go wrong, regardless - or, the absence of missing items is one way the police conclude that the robbery was bungled - which is what they would want them to do. In either case, evidence being his damaged watch band, as if someone tried. (The watch band also seems to make the phone thief theory less likely - since those actors reportedly only took phones.) 

Ultimately, the hypothetical "hit" is bungled anyway because Seth is not left dead. He is conscious when the police arrive, although he appears (by this analysis) to have a concussion with short-term memory loss (I am not seeing any immediate google search material indicating assailants can deliberately inflict memory loss -though perhaps raise the odds, as it's reportedly common for assault victims not to remember they've just been assaulted - and because of a head injury - which Seth did have, per bruises on his face/head. But in any case, the research indicates the typical hit-man's main objective is to expeditiously (and without a whole lot of planned incidentals, I'd think) "get the job done."

Stressing here, again, actual (not fake) bungled robbery/*ordinary* street crime is considered most likely, and "dovetails" quite well with area statistics (again, as discussed in the first post). On the face of things, there's nothing *weird* about this being street crime, nothing out-of-the-ordinary in terms of the stats for unsolved murders in this area with a certain number of unsolved white victims (some have speculated it's weird because Seth Rich is white - statistically and demographically, it's not). Plus, the DC homicide unit is highly regarded (reportedly, number one); they have a high solve rate relative to the rest of the nation, and while having many more to solve.

Photo Left: Seth Rich as DNC Voter Expansion Data Director at the Aug 2015 Election Data Summit at American University in Washington D.C. - on "How good data can help elections run better." In a video that surfaced after his much publicized death, Seth Rich asks panelists, one of whom includes the Director of Elections for Denver, how (the DNC, we gather) can obtain better information on why voters' ballots are cast as provisional or rejected - and so they can improve educational guides for voters to better ensure that their votes are counted. Seth was committed to voting rights and developed an app that helped voters find their polling locations.

Editor's Note. This is number three of four in a Seth Rich blog series. Number one is here at "Seth Rich Hypothesis," number two is here at "More On Seth Rich." Number four, "Wonderland" is here. (Really, you have to take the time to read the whole lengthy thing - and in sequence - for any of it to make sense, even if you fancy yourself an expert.)